A closer look at just how badly Windows 8.x is failing
Once a month I report on the desktop operating system market share using data from NetMarketShare. The changes in fortune between the different flavours of Windows is usually fairly minimal – a per centage point gained here, a per centage point lost there. And usually the rise or fall is a lot less than one per cent, although as a month is quite a small time scale to measure market share changes over, and we’re talking about millions and millions of Windows users, that’s to be expected.
I decided, out of curiosity, to take a look at what a year’s worth of market share variations would look like, using StatCounter’s Global Stats, and the results were less than thrilling, with the different operating systems showing very little change. In May 2013, Windows 7 had 56.27 per cent of the market – and 12 months later it is on 55.03 per cent, a drop of just 1.24 per cent. Windows XP fell 6.73 per cent, while Windows 8.x grew 8.16 per cent. The pattern is clear – Windows 8.x sales look to be coming from upgrades (mainly XP) but people are mostly sticking with their older operating systems. Open up the time scale however, and a more dramatic – and damning – picture emerges.
In July 2008 (when StatCounter started recording OS share) XP dominated the market with 75.07 per cent. Today it sits on 15.84 per cent – a drop of 59.23 per cent. But while XP was tumbling, Windows 7 was rising at a meteoric rate. It’s a clear upgrading picture – one OS ceding to another newer one. That picture is totally absent when you look at the impact that Windows 8.x has had.
From launch on 26 October 2012, Windows 8.x took 18 months (with a little rounding up) to get to where it is now – 13.73 per cent. 18 months after it launched on 22 October 2009, Windows 7 was at 33.22 per cent. At the rate it’s going (an average of 0.76 per cent a month), Windows 8.x will take another two years to reach that mark, assuming users of other operating systems (Windows 7 and XP) decide they want to make the switch. Of course, the keyboard and mouse friendly improvements added in Windows 8.1 Update could see the tiled OS pack on market share at a faster rate, but it’s too early to know.
We can make excuses for Windows 8.x failure – Windows 7 followed an unpopular OS, people were looking to upgrade from XP, and tablets didn’t exist when Windows 7 launched. And of course that’s all true, but here’s the thing – Microsoft’s desktop dominance has only lost three per cent in six years, and is still at around 88 per cent (most of that erosion is down to OS X). Remember, we’re talking about desktop market share, not users.
Need a bit more convincing about the scale of Windows 8.x failure? Let’s look at the unpopular Vista. In the 18 months after it launched on 30 January 2007, it had 16.87 per cent market share, 3 per cent more than Windows 8.x has now.
Sure, it could be argued that people were clearly keener to upgrade from XP than they are to upgrade from Windows 7 (XP was a little over five years old at that point), but that’s a weak argument.
Where are we heading, for what, do we know.
Go back a few years to Windows 95, on to Windows 98, 98 SE then a stable, popular, ease of use XP with Outlook Express.
Microsoft Office was easy to navigate, Internet Explorer was there to connect to the Internet, and basic, simple Yahoo, then Google appeared.
In those past years people were able to navigate around their computers with relative ease, and beside them on the desk was a cell ‘phone for making and receiving calls and messages.
Onward to Windows 7, a different look and feel, the new OS and Microsoft Office had non-geek users seeking help, Yahoo and Google added more electronic alley-ways through which to wander, Mozilla Firefox was in the mix, ‘smart ‘phones’ were breeding, and improved technology in everything electronic was accelerating.
Windows 7 became popular, consumers were ‘getting used to it’, anti-virus and anti-malware programs were all touting, The Best.
Hackers continued to arrive in droves, ‘Google-It’ became an every day term for accessing the Internet, ‘Jump On Line’ and ‘Flick Me An Email’ became well used parts of speech.
‘Smart ‘phones became ‘smarter’, programs became applications and turned into ‘Apps’ and we were bombarded with ‘Apps For Everything’ in life.
Windows XP and basic cell-‘phones made Internet ‘surfing’, communications, research, and computer games, all relatively easy to understand and turned chores into simple tasks.
Now we are moving ahead at a fast rate into an electronic forest and becoming ‘hung up’ on electronic vines.
In all honesty, is it really necessary, wouldn’t it be better to pause for a while and lay back with our heads up, instead of almost continuous heads down, tap, tap tapping on glass screens and keyboards.
Just want to say that i think that JoninOz is dead on with the input that was made. I think that company’s like Microsoft and others are leaving a big segment of the public behind as they move farther to the geek side of things, also a lot of money on the table. I’m in my middle 70s and have to try very hard everyday just to try to keep up. My grandsons are in their early twenty’s and have got smart phones with all the bits bytes apps opps and all the rest and always want to text me but i let them know that if you want me to know something give me a call and we can talk about it and that way they want have to use all that omg’s and all the other stuff that really turn a lot of people on. Also its got to the point that you are scared to even send an email anymore because all these people that write all these articles and are telling you don’t put a W in that email because if you do a hacker will maybe take that W and clean out your bank account and maybe steal your wife and dog. That’s just another reason that all of us out here in the CLOUD (see i told you i do kinda keep up) are so thankful for a couple of rascals known as EB & TC that help all of us old geezers out a lot. Now for some of you younger dudes out there that old geezer comment is the same as (Senior Citizens) are as with the new jargon it could be SC. So keep tapping away so you want be left behind and God Bless all of you guys & gals out there.
HogMan
Windows 8 is gaining, by the fact in Australia as at December 2013, you couldn’t by a new computer unless it had Windows 8 or 8.1. Windows 7 was not available. So all us old XP users had to upgrade to Windows 8. Not fair.